The photovoltaic industry is currently navigating a path rife with contradictions. On one hand, it faces an industry "winter" characterized by overcapacity, price involution, and performance pressure on leading companies—the entire value chain is under unprecedented operational strain. On the other hand, accelerated technological iteration, a blossoming of next-generation technology routes, and the long-term opportunities brought by the global energy transition have pushed industry attention to new heights. As P-type cell efficiencies peak, the N-type era officially begins. TOPCon solidifies its mainstream position, HJT and BC technologies are poised for takeoff, and perovskite and tandem technologies outline the future landscape. The core competition in the PV industry is shifting from scale expansion to technological innovation. Amid this wave of global energy transformation, China's PV sector, with its absolute industrial advantages, firmly holds the world's "leading" position. The judgments of industry authorities represented by Martin Green provide clear direction for the future technological trajectory and development path of the industry—only by achieving technological breakthroughs to navigate industry cycles can long-term dividends be captured in the global energy transition.

Industry "Winter": A Cyclical Correction, Not a Recession — Long-Term Demand Logic Remains Unchanged

The so-called "winter" in the PV industry is essentially a cyclical correction at a certain stage of industrial development, not a signal of industry decline. Since 2024, the PV industry has fallen into a supply-demand imbalance, with overcapacity across the entire chain reaching historical peaks. Polysilicon prices plummeted from a peak of 200,000 RMB/ton to 30,000 RMB/ton, and module minimum quotes dropped 40% compared to 2023. Industry leaders such as Longi Green Energy and Tongwei Co., Ltd. have successively reported expected losses. In 2024, the total losses of A-share PV listed companies exceeded 60 billion RMB, and operating pressure in the industry remained unabated in 2025. Rising prices of core raw materials like silver, intensified overseas trade barriers, and insufficient grid absorption capacity have further exacerbated the industry's involution. However, it is important to note that this "winter" did not stem from shrinking demand, but from capacity expansion far outpacing the pace of demand growth. In 2024, global newly installed PV capacity reached a historical peak of 553-601 GW. China, accounting for 61.24% of global new installations and ranking first globally for eleven consecutive years, became the core engine of global PV demand, also contributing 39.38% of global PV power generation. Even against the backdrop of slowing global demand growth in 2025, China's new PV installations maintained a high growth rate of 39.5%, with the coordinated development of large-scale centralized bases and distributed PV continuously providing demand support for the industry. It can be said that the short-term difficulties of the PV industry represent a "capacity digestion period" after rapid development, while the overarching trend of the global energy structure transitioning towards renewable energy determines that the industry's long-term upward logic has never changed.

Competing Technology Routes: TOPCon, HJT, BC, and Perovskite Outline the Future Landscape

The rapid adoption of TOPCon is not the endpoint of PV technology iteration, but the starting point of a new round of technological competition. The flourishing of multiple routes such as HJT and BC (back contact) technologies is pushing the PV industry into a new stage of parallel development.

HJT (Heterojunction) Cells: High Theoretical Efficiency, Cost Remains a Bottleneck

HJT cells, with their core advantages of higher theoretical efficiency and lower degradation rates, have mass production efficiency expected to exceed 27%. However, issues such as high equipment investment costs and high silver paste consumption constrain their large-scale application speed. They are currently still in the industrial "tackling" stage of reducing costs and increasing efficiency.

BC Back-Contact Technology: The Next Core Technology Direction

BC back-contact technology, with its structural advantage of electrodes being completely placed on the back of the cell without front grid line shading, has become an industry-recognized next-generation core technology direction. It is also the focus of Martin Green's view on the next major technological turning point in the PV industry. Martin Green points out that the PV industry has completed the rapid iteration from PERC to TOPCon. Future technology will continue to advance towards higher efficiency. TBC, HBC, and other back-contact technologies, or combined routes integrating the advantages of TOPCon and heterojunction technologies, will become important development directions. Back-contact technology can not only effectively enhance cell conversion efficiency but also deeply integrate with existing N-type technology routes, forming composite technologies like "TOPCon+BC" and "HJT+BC," providing possibilities for continuous breakthroughs in PV efficiency. Several companies have already started R&D and pilot production of back-contact cells, and technology industrialization is accelerating.

Perovskite Cells: Huge Efficiency Potential, Stability Remains the Biggest "Stumbling Block"

Among numerous next-generation technology routes, perovskite cells are undoubtedly the "star technology" attracting the most capital and industry attention. With their ultra-high efficiency improvement potential and extremely low raw material and production costs, they are regarded as the core breakthrough for third-generation PV technology. However, the stability challenge has become the biggest "stumbling block" to their large-scale application. Laboratory data show that the conversion efficiency of perovskite cells has exceeded 27.2%, and the efficiency of crystalline silicon-perovskite tandem cells has reached 35%, far exceeding the mass production efficiency ceiling of N-type crystalline silicon cells. On the cost side, the amount of raw material for the perovskite light-absorbing layer is only 1/500 of that of silicon wafers, the investment for a GW-level production line is only half that of crystalline silicon cells, and module costs are expected to fall to 0.5-0.6 RMB/W, with huge potential for reducing the levelized cost of electricity. However, as Martin Green stated, the efficiency advantage of perovskite cells is limited to small devices; currently, no perovskite cell can meet the stability standards required for gigawatt-scale applications. Perovskite materials are sensitive to moisture and high temperatures. In a photo-thermal coupled environment at 85°C, the efficiency degradation rate reaches 17.2% after 1000 hours. The irreversible migration of iodide ions is a core cause of permanent performance degradation. Although Chinese research teams have achieved significant breakthroughs — for example, the team led by Academician Guo Wanlin from Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics developed a "vapor-assisted surface reconstruction" technology, achieving outdoor operational stability for a 30cm×30cm perovskite module comparable to commercial crystalline silicon cells. A 785 cm2 large-area cell lost only 3% efficiency in simulated day-night cycle tests, equivalent to 25 years of stable outdoor operation — moving from laboratory achievements to industrialization still requires solving a series of engineering problems, including large-area preparation, mass production consistency, and long-term reliability. Martin Green has said that perovskite cell stability issues may take 5, 10 years, or even longer to solve, and might never be solved. Predicting their mass production timeline is currently impossible. This judgment sounds an alarm for the industry: perovskite cells have broad prospects, but rationality must be maintained, technical challenges must be tackled down-to-earth, and blindly following trends to expand production should be avoided.

China's PV: The Leap from "Follower" to "Leader"

The iteration of PV technology and the development of the industry are inseparable from China's deep participation and leadership. Today, China's PV sector has grown from a global industry "follower" to an undisputed "leader." This status stems from comprehensive advantages in technology, capacity, and market, as well as the continuous dedication of China's PV professionals to technological innovation. Martin Green has repeatedly stated, "It is very difficult for other countries to compete with China in the short term." Behind this judgment lies China's absolute dominance in the global PV industrial chain: In 2024, China accounted for over 90% of global production capacity in the four core segments of polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules. Chinese companies occupy 8 of the world's top 10 module manufacturers, with JinkoSolar, Longi, and Trina Solar leading the global market. China's lead in PV is not merely a capacity advantage, but a comprehensive advantage of technology, cost, and industrial chain synergy. From the rapid iteration of PERC to TOPCon, Chinese companies have synchronized technological R&D with industrial implementation, becoming a core force in the global adoption of N-type technology. In next-generation technology routes like HJT, BC, and perovskite, research results from Chinese institutions and companies are at the global forefront. Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics' perovskite stability technology and Longi Green Energy's tandem cell technology have contributed Chinese wisdom to the development of global PV technology. More importantly, China possesses the world's most complete PV industrial chain, from raw material processing and equipment manufacturing to cell and module production and power station construction, with coordinated development across all segments. This has formed an unparalleled cost advantage and supply chain resilience, which is the core confidence enabling China's PV industry to withstand cyclical fluctuations and maintain global leadership.

Martin Green's Perspective: Core Contradictions and Breakthrough Directions for Future Development

Martin Green's judgments not only affirm China's position in PV but also point the way for the future development of China's and the global PV industry. He believes that PV power has become the "lowest-cost form of electricity in history" certified by the International Energy Agency, and future PV power generation costs are still expected to continue falling. The overarching trend of global energy structure transformation determines that renewable energy represented by solar power replacing thermal power is an inevitable trend. However, simultaneously, the core contradiction in the PV industry has shifted from cell cost to grid absorption capacity. The past development model of companies competing on expansion and price is unsustainable. Future attention needs to shift from "competing on cost" to "competing on efficiency, absorption, and energy storage ratio." This judgment is particularly crucial for China's PV industry: Currently, China's cumulative installed PV capacity accounts for 30% of the country's total installed power generation capacity. The rapid development of distributed PV has made the generation side more distributed, with grid acceptance capacity and energy storage matching becoming key factors restricting the PV industry's development. In the future, the development of the PV industry will no longer be solely about breakthroughs in cell technology, but the coordinated development of cell efficiency, grid absorption, energy storage technology, and application scenarios. Innovative application scenarios such as direct green power connection, zero-carbon parks, and source-grid-load-storage integration will become important directions for the PV industry to open up new development space.

Navigating the Cycle: Action Recommendations for Chinese PV Companies

For Chinese PV companies, navigating the industry winter and seizing long-term opportunities requires maintaining focus in technological innovation and balancing short-term and long-term considerations in industrial development. In the short term, efforts should focus on optimizing and upgrading TOPCon technology, continuously reducing costs and enhancing efficiency, while simultaneously accelerating the industrial development of HJT technology, solving core issues like silver paste consumption and equipment costs, and consolidating the mainstream position of N-type technology. In the medium term, R&D investment in BC back-contact technology should be increased, promoting the integrated innovation of back-contact technology with N-type technologies to seize the commanding heights of next-generation technology. In the long term, continuous development in perovskite and tandem technologies is necessary, achieving breakthroughs in core issues like stability and large-area preparation, while strengthening collaboration with energy storage and grid companies to enhance PV absorption capacity. Furthermore, facing the reality of escalating overseas trade barriers, Chinese PV companies should accelerate global expansion, shifting from simple product exports to capacity cooperation and technology output, building a more stable supply chain and market system globally, and promoting China's PV technology and standards worldwide.

Conclusion: Leading the Global Energy Transition with Technological Innovation

The PV industry's "winter" is an industry reshuffle and also an opportunity for technological upgrading. Those companies that adhere to technological innovation, grasp technological directions, and balance cost and efficiency will ultimately navigate the cycle and become the backbone of industry development. From PERC to TOPCon, from N-type technology to back contact and perovskite, the iteration of PV technology has never stopped, and the core logic of technological innovation remains consistently: higher efficiency, lower levelized cost of electricity, and more stable performance. As the "leader" of the global PV industry, China's PV sector shoulders the important mission of driving the global energy transition and achieving the "dual carbon" goals. Only by taking technological innovation as the core driving force and coordinated development as an important path can it continuously lead the development direction of the PV industry amidst the wave of global energy transformation, making solar energy a core component of the global energy structure and contributing Chinese strength to sustainable human development. The future of the PV industry begins with technology and ends with green; this industrial revolution centered on technological breakthroughs is writing a new chapter in the global energy transition.

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